A Failure of Imagination
I fear that it's far worse than most think or comprehend
It can’t happen here.
Someone is going to come through at the last minute and “science the shit out of this” to save us all.
He’s not really going to do those horrible things.
All of these, and more, were common refrains throughout the campaign season and especially since the election. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard some variation of “it’s just not going to be as bad as you think”, said with varying levels of pity or derision, depending on the speaker. “We survived his first administration; we’ll survive this one” is another common theme. It’s understandable to a degree, as here in the United States we have not had a true threat to our way of lives, at least not in the 54 years I have been on the planet.
I fear that this is no longer the case, and far too many people are underestimating just how bad it could get.
A False Sense of Security
Here in the US we have truly been fortunate. We have large oceans to keep invading armies off of our shores. We have great resources, and most of us are able to maintain a lifestyle that would be the envy of people across the globe. We have enjoyed freedoms that many do not, even in democratic nations. Unfortunately, it may be these benefits that are feeding into the current situation, exacerbating the extent to which the average American either does not know the dangers we currently face or feels like, as was the case 8 years ago, the “system” will hold. After all, Trump tried, and failed, to make a lot of bad changes the first time around. His worst efforts were stymied either by the courts or by more reasonable people within his administration.
Well, those people are gone, replaced by sycophants, cronies, and lackeys. The Republican party has been completely subsumed by the Cult of Trump, with every member either in lockstep with his illiberal plans or too afraid to speak out against him. Honestly, think back to his first administration and remember all of the times you sat, incredulous, watching something that had never happened before. Why, then, would anyone think that the things that Trump has told us he is planning on doing are beyond the realm of possibility. Just because they are far worse this time around does not make them any less an option for a tyrant.
He Truly Believes That He Is Entitled To This Power
Make no mistake… Donald Trump believes fully and completely that he is entitled to all of the power of the office of President of the United States, as well as many powers that have not traditionally been behind that seal. He fashions himself a king. Many were quick to hand wave away his comments about being a dictator “on day 1” as just his sense of humor.
As we have already seen, they were quite wrong, and he feels that he is the ultimate power in this country and, by extension, the world.
The Incompetence Can’t Save Us This Time
In addition to the guardrails that held, barely, during Trump 1, we were protected from Trump by Trump. He and his team did not know how to operate the levers of power, they were not used to all of the inside baseball that takes place in a bureaucracy as big as DC, and as a result they shot themselves in the foot time and again, costing themselves time and political capital. This is not the case in 2025. There is a reason so many on the left were trying to warn people about Project 2025. It’s a horrible, terrible, illiberal plan, but it’s a plan. It’s a road map, laying out exactly what they want to do, and how to do it. It’s a playbook that even the D-list team that Trump has put together will likely be able to implement unless stopped. We can’t count on the Keystone Kops antics of his first admin this time around.
Laying In Wait
Many people in recovery from addiction that come back from a relapse share a similar observation… that when they relapsed their disease picked up right where it left off, and in a very short period of time. Trump is no different. He has spent the last four years steaming mad and plotting his retribution. He has enlisted the help of some very bad people, including many from the Heritage Foundation, who are using him as a tool to shape the Federal Government to their desires. He has enlisted the help of people like Russ Vought, who is likely the principal author of the avalanche of Day One Executive Orders. He has schemed, recruited, and planned, and we are seeing the results play out in real time.
Even His Own Party Underestimates Him
Throughout the campaign, GOP/MAGA mouthpieces would appear on the Sunday Shows and handwave away the worst parts of Trump’s campaign rally promises. “He’s not serious, you should not take him literally” was a common refrain. Likewise “Of course he doesn’t mean that, he’s just getting under the Dem’s skin. You people just have Trump Derangement Syndrome” was another.
Did these sycophants actually believe what they said and are now perhaps just as shocked as we are that he is trying to do exactly what he said he was going to do? Or are they in on the plan and blatantly lied to the American people? We may never know.
Perhaps the most glaring example of this was illustrated by how many of the GOP members vehemently argued that Trump would not pardon any of the violent January 6th terrorists. Senator Thom Tillis had this to say while grandstanding during Pam Bondi’s confirmation hearing:
I'm not going to ask you a hypothetical because I want you to be consistent in not answering them. But I have to believe as a member -- I was the last member out of the Senate on January the 6th.
I walked past a lot of law enforcement officers, excuse me, who were injured. I find it hard to believe that the President of the United States or you would look at facts that were used to convict the violent people on January the 6th and say it was just an intemperate moment.
That I don't even expect you to respond to that, but I think it's an absurd and unfair hypothetical here, and you probably haven't heard the last of it.
I would like to see anyone in the media follow up with Senator Tillis to ask him what facts Trump must have uncovered to come to the conclusion that even the most violent criminals from the coup should be allowed to walk free.
I’m not even giving time to Sycophant #1, JD Vance, who flipped his attitude towards the pardon of cop beaters faster than an Olympic gymnast going over the vault. Not surprising, considering the source.
Systematic Dissolving Of Barriers
While realizing that this hasn’t been the happiest of posts, I will close by pointing out the ways that Trump has, since his first inauguration in 2017, been eroding the supports of the nation.
Almost immediately after his first swearing in, Trump launched attacks against the media (“You are fake news”) and the intelligence community. This was calculated, as these have traditionally been two of the stronger checks against illiberal acts. He continued this throughout his first term, while attacking the truth on a daily basis.
Finally, after his defeat and failed coup, he continued the destruction by successfully evading conviction on his second Impeachment. He continued his apparent Teflon-like resistance to consequences of his actions by delaying and manipulating the courts, allowing him to run out the clock before the 2024 election, once again avoiding conviction on cases that seemed to be slam dunks. Throughout this time he was able to consolidate his grip on the entire Republican party, systematically chasing out or primarying GOP members who didn’t supplicate to him. He was aided by the cowardice of Mitch McConnell, who could have ended all of this by getting the Senate to convict in Impeachment trial as well as the inexplicable delay that Biden Attorney General Merrick Garland allowed before starting the investigation into Trump’s behavior in the lead up to January 6th.
Perhaps the single greatest blow to the barriers that protect our Democracy was the Democracy itself. Despite all that Trump had wrought during and after his first presidency, despite the Insurrection, despite the court cases and convictions, the Amercian people voted to allow him back into power.
So yeah, it’s probably worse than you think.
Average White* Guy is a collection of thoughts from Marwan Saidi. It’s primarily a place for me to dump my thoughts in an effort to get them out of my head and give me some calm. It’s also a place where my friends and family can opt in to my neuroses so I can keep it out of other family gatherings. :)
* - I am Palestinian American, but you would probably not think that based on my appearance or (lack of) accent. For years I would check White on the race section of forms because there wasn’t an option that fit better.