Is it me or did basically no American give a shit about Iran three weeks ago?1 I don’t recall any news about that particular country, they hadn’t been doing anything to us directly, and I honestly hadn’t thought about them.
Today you can’t open a news website without headlines screaming at you about the atrocities the Iranians have fomented upon the people of Israel. Don’t even bother with flipping over to Fox News, where the drumbeat to attack is being pounded by every host and guest 24/7, seemingly out of nowhere. The tune is different, but the song is the same… “if you don’t get behind our President and support this action against Iran, then you are not a Patriot, not a True American” or some such. What’s (not so) old is, tragically, new again. What surprises me this time, and I know it shouldn’t, is the speed at which a not-insignificant part of the population has already bought into the war machine hype.
I see many people already comparing this to the run up to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan after 9/11. The major difference here is 9/11. At least when the government was lying to us then there was still a giant smoking hole in lower Manhattan to remind Americans about the attacks. There is no such reminder now, because there has been no direct attack on our nation. And yet the talking heads on the right, sadly joined by some on the left, are trying to whip up bloodthirsty support for an ill-conceived, unplanned attack on yet another country in the Middle East.
Now, as much as I would hope it would be understood, I feel that I need to clarify some things about my position: I do know and understand that the current leadership in Iran is the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism2 and that is a fine reason to want to be rid of them. I also realize that they have been using their proxies to attack Israel for decades, and I even understand Israel’s argument that they have a right to defend themselves.3 The Iranian people have tried, multiple times, to rise up against the theocracy, and they certainly deserve to have a chance at a better life. If that was a guaranteed result of this foolishness then of course that would be a strong argument to proceed. But of course, nothing is guaranteed and our record with regime change, particularly in that corner of the globe, leaves quite a bit to be desired.
The True Causes
The Trump administration, at the exhortation of their puppetmasters partners in Israel, are telling us that Iran is literally moments away from launching nuclear missiles at Israeli cities and American military bases in the region. Of course this is not the case, but the truth and this administration have rarely existed in the same time zone, much less zip code.
Less than three months ago, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified in front of the Senate Intelligence Committe, as an introduction to her department’s Annual Threat Assessment, that Iran was not close to a nuclear weapon. Here are two quotes directly from that linked document:
“Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to desire to avoid embroiling Iran in an expanded, direct conflict with the United States and its allies.”
…
“We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so.”
What changed over the past 90 days?
Domestically, at time of the Hearing the only tariffs that had been announced were on Canada, Mexico, and China, and the first two had already been paused. We had not experienced “Liberation Day” and the Dow was over 42,000. Trump’s approval ratings had only recently turned negative, due to the aforementioned tariffs on our closest trading partners. While Elon Musk was still decimating the US Government and its activities both home and abroad, those did not have a direct effect on most Americans, and the media was doing their best to either cover for the admin or at least lessen the import of its actions. Many folks trusted that the GOP was truly eliminating “fraud, waste, and abuse”.4
That all changed, rapidly, over the next two weeks or so. Beginning first with Trump’s insane announcement of blanket tariffs on nearly every nation on Earth5, the administration launched a tsunami of uncertainty, indecision, and cruelty that has no real comparison in American history. Financial markets cratered, opposition grew and took to the streets, and Trump’s approval took a nosedive. When the administration then began to violently round up peaceful immigrants, including the flights taking alleged “dangerous criminals” to foreign gulags without due process, things started to turn in the all-so-important (to him) realm of public opinion. The courts started ruling against him, and after an initial wave of weak media outlets, law firms, and universities capitulating, others began to stand up and stand firm. More and more Democrats found their spines and started standing up to the admin’s actions in very public ways, some even getting arrested.
All of this came to a head the weekend of June 13th. Trump’s Big Beautiful Perade (sic) was a wet fart, sparsely attended and very underwhelming, while being upstaged by millions of Americans who turned out for No Kings marches nationwide. There is no doubt the split screen images of Trump pouting under the grey DC skies while throngs marched down streets in both blue cities and red communities across the country and, in fact, the world got to him.
On top of all of that are the changes in the global theater. The meeting of the G7 in Canada just this week provided a stark reminder that the United States is no longer the solid, trusted ally that we have been for eight decades. Watching the way our (former?) closest allies handled Trump for the entire (truncated) time he was there was telling on many levels.6
Additionally, Bibi Netanyahu and Isreal continue to undergo strong international condemnation for their ongoing ethnic cleansing in both Gaza and the West Bank7. There’s not much left for the IDF to bomb in Gaza, so now they have apparently turned food aid stations into shooting galleries for their troops. Since Bibi absolutely needs to maintain a war footing in order to avoid losing his position (and likely heading to jail for the rest of his life), he needs a new conflict. Enter Iran.
Netanyahu played Trump like the pawn he is with regard to Iran. While Trump continued to make noises about forcing Iran to the table, Israel unleashed a massive military operation against the Persian nation, effectively decapitating Iran’s military leadership and nuclear scientific community. Bibi knew that springing the attack while Trump was claiming that negotiations were ongoing would force Trump to act like this was all part of the plan in order to save face, and it worked like a charm. Within hours of the attack Trump was posturing on his social media site, bleating out that “We” had gained complete air superiority over Iran. Unfortunately, this also almost ensures that the US will be drawn into this action.
It was really a genius plan, as there is no way that Israel could have completed their goals, whatever those may be, without US assistance. As strong as that nation’s military is, they are a country of just over 9 million people, barely a tenth of Iran’s 90 million. By visibly hanging Trump out to dry they effectively guaranteed at least some form of US involvement. The extent to which that occurs, and the cost in both American blood and treasure, remain to be seen.
One other thing to consider is that Israel itself did not start this war for the reasons that they claim. I recommend David Rothkopf’s explanation of this, it’s a good read.
What’s Next?
Unfortunately, that is not an easily answerable question, not unlike most things Trump. As we have seen with the tariffs, there is no clear goal here. Depending on the day, or time of day in some cases, the admin has claimed that we must:
Stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Stop Iran’s nuclear program in full.
Remove and replace the Iranian government (“The Mullahs”).
There may very well be other goals as well, who is to know these trivial things? One thing I do know however is that whatever the stated goal, I have zero faith that this administration has fully contemplated the means to achieve it nor what to do in the aftermath. My fear is that this administration, made up of sycophants and yes men with literally no experience in their respective postions, will be trying to navigate a shooting war. Of course, the experience of his Cabinet may not matter, since he has already shown that he didn’t put them in place for their intelligence, knowledge or input, only for their fealty.
You need look no further for confirmation of this point that to his Director of National Intelligence. When reporters aboard Air Force One asked Trump about Gabbard’s aforementioned testimony in March regarding Iran, logically pointing out that said testimony disputed his current claim that Iran is moments away from a nuke, Trump responded that he “does not care what she said”. Not for nothing, if I were Gabbard my resignation would have been on his desk before the plane landed. The fact that it wasn’t tells you all you need to know about Tulsi’s character. In addition to that there are reports in the Washington Post just today that Trump is also freezing Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth out of discussions on Iran.
I am not a political operative, nor a military strategist, but I have to assume that you would want counsel from the guy you put in charge of the nation’s military during the first potential armed conflict that your admin is facing. If you trusted the guy, that is. I guess Pete’s Perade wasn’t intimidating enough for him to be read in on the big attack plans. Or maybe Trump just doesn’t want any Iranians with Signal to get a heads up?
As an aside, does anyone really think that an administration who can’t send 4,000+ troops to LA with food and a place to sleep will be able to prosecute a war halfway around the world?
One Last Point - We Had a Plan
Just a little reminder… We (the USA) had dealt with the Iranian issue. In 2015 we negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. This agreement essentially prevented Iran from getting nuclear weapons through a series of incentives combines with serious repercussions should they stray. One of the first things Trump did his first time around was to unilaterally scrap that deal, seemingly for no reason.8 Naturally, there was no backup to this, despite Trump’s frantic efforts to get a deal this time around.
As I write this, I see that the White House has announced that Trump will announce his plans regarding Iran… within the next two weeks.
Joy.
Take Care and Stay Strong. Together.
Except John Bolton, of course, whose IranBoner has lasted far longer than the medically concerning four hours.
Of course, there are plenty out there who would contend that the United States holds that title, but I digress.
Another of course… the debate can be had whether Isreal is in a defensive posture or the instigators here, but that’s a whole other kettle o’ fish.
Credit where due, the GOP are masters at finding short, catchy phrases and then never missing an opportunity to use them. They are very, very good at messaging.
As well as a slew of penguins.
Having Zelensky take Trump’s abandoned seat at the table after the latter petulantly stomped off was a stroke of genius.
Most are not even paying attention to the nearly complete annexation of the West Bank by Israel, as all eyes remain, rightfully, on Gaza.
That’s not entirely true. Trump’s main reason was that it was an Obama accomplishment, and for those who have memory-holed T1.0, the only real accomplishments he was able to point to, other than giving billionaires a tax break, was his systematic deconstruction of nearly all of Obama’s achievements.