Quick Hitter: The Iran Attack
Ok, it happened. Despite no legally required notice to Democratic leadership, despite no intelligence pointing to an imminent Iranian nuclear device, and despite basic common sense, the United States has been dragged into Israel’s conflict with Iran.
This, of course, is not a surprise. None of it is. It is not a surprise that the petulant child that runs our country could not stomach the fact that enormous numbers of Americans took to the streets to protest him while an embarrassing few showed up to his birthday parade. Nor is it a surprise that this same “man” may have been reacting to multiple media outlets lambasting his “two week” decision timeframe, rightfully so. It’s not a surprise that the majority of the coverage of the attack by the legacy media is conveniently ignoring the illegal nature of the action and only focusing on the “success”.
It’s also not a surprise, to anyone actually paying attention, that this man would once again violate the law and the Constitution in order to do whatever the fuck he wants. Oh, excuse me, whatever the fuck some other, smarter leader (in this case Netanyahu) wants. After all, operating outside the law and the Constitution have been the singular most consistent behavior we have seen from this administration. Anyone who still believed that Trump would respect the rules when it came to slinging bombs at brown people hasn’t been paying attention. If these people are in government, perhaps they shouldn’t be.
Perhaps the only surprise is that this action is certainly something that Uncle Vlad did not want, so it’s one of the first times that Trump has willfully opposed Putin’s wishes. Of course, Diaper Don is probably upset that Putin won’t play his Peacemaker game regarding Ukraine.
“Donald Trump, a weak and dangerously reckless president, has put the United States on a path to a war in the Middle East that the country does not want, the law does not allow, and our security does not demand” - US Sentator Chris Murphy, CT
There is plenty of coverage of the facts, both actual provable facts as well as the alternative facts that this admin has historically been more comfortable with, all over the internet so I am not going to spend time there. Instead, I would like to share my personal opinions as well as some other folk’s that have resonated with me.
I think my feelings are best summed up by George Conway, who stated that "A smart and evil man, Bibi Netanyahu, manipulated a stupid and evil man, Trump, into attacking a fanatical and evil regime." This was not an attack that had to happen last night, and it did not need to be carried out by American forces. It was, however, just the latest example of Trump trying to curry favor with another of the world’s proto authoritarians.
Here’s a salient point: If you are ok with this attack, then by extension you have to be ok with Russia's attack on Ukraine, as there is not much different. Israel, then the US, claimed that Iran was a threat. Not that Iran attacked (Israel shot first this time) but that they are a threat to get a nuke. Putin claimed that Ukraine was a threat to attack. If there is a tangible difference there, please explain it to me in the comments.
I find it laughable just how quickly the majority of MAGA has already flushed their America First, Anti Forever War opinions to fall in line and support Dear Leader. Again, not a surprise. It’s also amazing to watch the admin pull some Orwellian bullshit this morning, trotting out JD Vance to claim that “we are not at war with Iran, we are at war with Iran’s nuclear program”. Once again, the hubris from this administration, in the form of their complete contempt for American’s intelligence, is astounding.
So what happens now?
I feel that the best outcome is that we really have damaged Iran’s capability and destabilized the regime in such a way that it falls without any further action by US forces. This would preferably happen before any retaliatory attacks against US troops in the region or terrorist or cyber-attacks either at home or abroad. That would mean that the mission was a success, even if it were carried out illegally. It would also make it harder to deal with said illegality, because the admin will frame any efforts to address the violations as some sort of Democrat support of Iran.
Worst case would be a situation where Iran successfully moved their resources and last night’s attacks did nothing but break some buildings and make big, expensive holes in the ground. Iran would then almost certainly kick their program into a higher gear while the mullahs whipped the population into a newly energized “Death to America” frenzy. Increased attacks against Israeli civilians or attacks inside the United States1 could be carried out, while Iran paralyzes shipping through the Straits of Hormuz. This would result in skyrocketing gas prices here at home and perhaps lend more economic uncertainty to a system still reeling from the tariff nonsense. Finally, in order to “finish the job” the US may be forced to put American soldiers on the ground in a hostile country of 90 million people.
What’s most likely to occur lies somewhere in the middle. Perhaps Iran’s nuclear program has been delayed.2 Perhaps there can still be a diplomatic solution. Maybe we have simply, once again, traded America’s global reputation for sating Trump’s whims and the world’s news cycle will move on to the next shiny object by Wednesday. Who really knows at this point?
I explained my feelings about the Iran situation earlier this week, so you can read that one rather than me regurgitating it here.
That said, while I can certainly see the merits of regime change in Iran, I most certainly do not trust THIS administration to handle it. We have had far more experienced and competent leaders who have failed when it comes to actions like this, especially in the Middle East. Anyone who believes that this collection of TV hosts and billionaires will somehow solve this puzzle is living in a fantasy world.
However this all shakes out, we will all be forced to exist, yet again, in this cavalcade of chaos that T2.0 seems to relish foisting upon the world.
Take Care and Stay Safe, Together.
Especially concerning considering how agencies dedicated to protecting us from terror and cyber attacks were either shut down or severely jumbled by this admin. Not to mention the extent to which T2.0 has repurposed assets to immigration activities.
Trump’s claims that Iran’s program was “TOTALLY OBILITERATED” were no more than his usual bluster, as at the time of his claim there was literally no way for Iran to know the extent of the damage, much less us.