That's What I'm Talking Aboot
The Canadian Election Perhaps Gives Us a Glimmer of Hope
Back in January, the Canadian political scene looked a lot like the American landscape over the summer of 2024. Incumbent Justin Trudeau was hemorrhaging popular support both personally and for his Liberal party while the Tories, Canada’s Conservative party, were seeing a sharp uptick in popularity. The party’s leader, Pierre Poilievre, became the presumptive successor to Trudeau for the Prime Ministry, where he would bring his “Canadian Trump” outlook and attitude to our neighbors to the North. Back home in the USA, the media was going on and on about a global “vibe shift” to the right, exacerbated by Trump’s November win.
Funny thing happened… Trump.
Back during T1.0 I was a big fan of the Lincoln Project podcast. I eventually figured that they were part of the “Resistance Grifters”, but their constant trashing of Trump was a refreshing listen back in the runup to the 2020 election, and their Audience of One media blitz was excellently carried out. One of their founders, Rick Wilson, wrote a book titled Everything Trump Touches Dies, which was shortened in the Twitter world to #ETTD. During the 2020 election and aftermath, culminating in the insurrection on January 6th, Wilson’s words seemed prophetic.
Unfortunately, apparently Trump also has a touch of zombie virus, at least personally, because he obviously didn’t stay dead. Against all odds, he captured the GOPMAGA nomination, again. The 2024 election results seemed to indicate that he was not only back, but more popular than ever. This was borne out in his early polling, where he was outpacing his 2017 results. The notion that he had some sort of mandate, earned by simply being a Republican candidate who actually won a popular vote, was buttressed by seeing one tech CEO after another donate millions to his inaugural fund while tripping over each other in an attempt to grovel at his feet. So, too, did major media outlets and corporations.
Shortly after assuming office, Trump started attacking universities and law firms, with several immediately collapsing and capitulating to his likely illegal demands. Even the stock market was improving, seeing a very large gain at the outset of Trump 2.0. It looked like he was in full command, and that Americans by and large supported his actions. But what does any of this have to do with Canada?
Trump’s Imperialism
T2.0 has been very busy trying to speedrun all of his (illegal?) campaign promises through an avalanche of Executive Orders. None of what he has been doing in this manner is a surprise to anyone who paid attention to the campaign, as Trump claimed time and again that he would do exactly what he’s done. What was NOT discussed during the campaign, however, was Trump’s bizarre imperialistic fantasies.
Shortly after the election, but prior to the inauguration, Trump started to talk about “acquiring” Greenland for the United States. He also proposed taking back the Panama Canal, as he felt that it was “unfair” for US ships to have to pay the fees to traverse the Canal. He floated the idea of taking over the Gaza Strip in order to redevelop it into a resort, never mind the tiny bit of ethnic cleansing necessary to relocate the 2 million Palestinians who live there.
All of this was shocking, despite many GOP talking heads hand-waving it away. They would spend their hits on the Sunday shows condescendingly telling folks not to get upset, to take Dear Leader seriously but not literally, etc. But all of these newfound imperialistic ideas paled in comparison to the constant barrage of comments from Trump about making the entire sovereign country of Canada our “51st State”.
O, Canada
The United States has been extremely fortunate in that in addition to the natural defenses that two oceans provide on our Eastern and Western coasts, we have always enjoyed having staunch allies on both our Southern and Northern borders. It cannot be stressed enough the tactical and strategic benefits of sharing our significant land borders with only one country to the North and one to the South and that both of these countries are relatively stable democracies. After all, you can stockpile defenses and project power to the rest of the world when you don’t have to worry about a crackpot dictator at your border causing trouble.1
The alliance between all three nations has facilitated an incredibly complex system of everything from daily trade and manufacturing to missile defense. NORAD, the North American Air Defense is what it is because we share the responsibility of protecting our skies with Canada. The Canadian military sent troops to fight and die side by side with Americans during the Gulf War and the war in Afghanistan. The border between the United States and Canada is the longest border between two nations in the entire world, and a great deal of both country’s historical prosperity has hinged on the friendly relations that they have shared for more than two centuries.
All of this made Trump’s ridiculous designs regarding Canada even more insane. Watching his MAGA followers and surrogates in the government twist themselves into pretzels trying to defend his bullshit would be entertaining as hell if the subject were not so serious. Unlike the misguided Americans who memory-holed the entirety of T1.0, Canadians were having none of this nonsense.
Elbows Up
While they have a well-deserved sterotype of being polite folks, Canadians are apparently not too keen on the idea of losing many of their freedoms, not the least of which includes their national health care. Disdain for Trump, and by extension America, has risen quickly amongst most of Canada’s population. Trump’s bullying rhetoric towards both Canada and Trudeau, who Trump began demeaningly referring to as “Governor”, continued, and Canadians got more and more pissed. Trudeau, realizing that his time in leadership was over, announced his resignation and the Liberals chose Mark Carney to take over as Prime Minister. Carney wasted no time in standing up to Trump, making it very clear that Canadians were quite happy to be Canadian. He even filmed a fun commercial with another pair of Canadian icons, hockey and Mike Myers.
Tariff Whiplash
In addition to the 51st State lunacy, Dear Leader began a game of levying debilitating tariffs on our neighbors and largest trading partners, then removing them, then putting them back, then, well, who knows. At this point we have Schrödinger’s Tariffs. Trudeau was initially willing to play along with Trump, announcing at the 11th hour that Canada had agreed to certain actions to help secure the border in order for Trump to pause the initial round of tariffs for 30 days2. During this initial pause, Carney was elected to replace Trudeau and promised to stand up to Trump’s trade war.
When the pause expired on April 2nd, Trump reinstated the 25% tariff on Canada while adding a reciprocal tariff on top of it as part of “Liberation Day”. Carney did not back down, and Canadian provinces immediately fought back by removing US goods from their shelves while the government threatened to apply strong tariffs on electricity sold to Northern US states. Unlike some other nations, Canada has shown no desire to succumb to Trump’s trade war, and the Canadian population has found a new sense of Nationalistic pride, which has led to an organic movement to Buy Canadian, to the benefit of their nation and the detriment to Americans who have enjoyed a long history of trade with our neighbors to the North.
How To Stop a Bully
Returning to the Canadian elections, something interesting was brewing. Remember, at the start of the year the Tories were enjoying a 20-point lead over the Liberals. The decade-plus reign of the liberal party was all but assured to be coming to an end, replaced by Poilievre’s Conservatives. There was one significant, Trump-sized fly in the ointment though.
You see, all of that vibe shift nonsense from January crumbled under the weight of the incompetence, arrogance, and straight cruelty of T2.0. While Trump’s approval in the US was hanging on, barely, it had plummeted outside our borders3. Carney led the charge, refusing to back down to Trump while being crystal clear as to his views on the damage already done by the American President. Canadians heard their Prime Minister, and the inevitability of a Tory win started to falter.
The Tories were now in a very tough spot. Poilievre could not simply rebuke Trump, as a significant portion of his base wanted Trump-like behavior. But he could see his grip slipping and would have to be a savvy operator to thread the needle and maintain the Tory advantage.
Poilievre was not that man.
A Comeback for the Ages
Not since the Florida Gators4 blew a 28-point 4th quarter lead against their hated Florida State Seminole rivals in the Choke at Doak in 1994 has a seemingly unbeatable lead vanished so quickly as it did over the last month or so in Canada.
Canadian Liberals, led by Carney, stormed all the way back to take last night’s election and maintain their hold on the Canadian government for a fourth cycle. While they did not receive a majority and will need to build a coalition to govern, the mere fact that they were able to win is shocking in and of itself. To add insult to injury (or a delicious side dish of schadenfreude, if you think like I do) Poilievre did not even win his personal election. The man, the self-styled Canadian Trump, went from the presumptive Prime Minister elect to out of politics in less than 60 days. Is it all about Trump though? Hard to tell, but take a look at this graph:
While the Tory’s loss of support does align with the start of T2.0’s bleating about Canada, it may be that the liberals just needed someone to step up and lead. Trudeau had been PM for a decade and Canada faced many of the same economic pressures as the United States has. Carney did step up and was able to leverage Trump’s attacks into political advantage. Rather than cower in fear, he resolutely stood up in support of his country. Sadly, he has had to speak not only of standing up to Trump but standing up to Americans. We did, after all, elect this man again, despite all the fuckery he brings. Just watch this brief snip from his victory speech to understand the damage that has been done.
What Does It Mean for Us Though?
While it is fun to revel in the Tory’s failure, it does not seem to be of any help to us Americans who feel aligned with our liberal Canadian neighbors. While we can be happy for them, we are left stuck with Dear Leader. So why is this result a glimmer of hope?
Taken in a vacuum, the results in Canada may not be all that important. When you look at is alongside other events though, we are perhaps seeing some cracks in Donny’s Teflon shield. Consider:
Protests against authoritarian rule have sprung up around the world. South Korea immediately took steps when their President declared martial law. Their protests eventually resulted in the impeachment, arrest and indictment of the President. Mass protests have also been held in Turkey, Hungary and Georgia.
Democrat challengers in the Special Elections held in Florida to replace Matt Gaeta and Mike Waltz, both in ruby-red districts, fared far better than the candidates who ran in November did, each improving their vote share by about 10-15%.
Susan Crawford, the Democrat-aligned Supreme Court candidate for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, handily defeated her Trump-endorsed opponent, despite Elon Musk dropping some $20 million into the race.
While none of these alone are significant, taken together they illustrate a trend that is going against Trump. Remember that the hold he has over the MAGAGOP party gets the majority of its strength from his threats to primary anyone who doesn’t fall in line. As we see foreign leaders like Carney, as well as domestic institutions such as Harvard, stand up to his bullying, it shows that he does not have the iron grip over the country that he and his team try to portray. It’s also telling that his approval numbers have been cratering since “Liberation Day”. His 44% approval is the lowest rate at the 100-day mark since Dwight Eisenhower.
While there are certainly MAGA politicians that will ride or die with Trump no matter what, there must also be some, at least a few, who may find their spines again once the primary threat is reduced. And that’s why the Canada result is important. If we start to consistently see Trump backed candidates and issues getting beaten (and in some cases humiliated) and we start to see people and institutions successfully standing up to the bully, then his primary threats are neutered. Make his endorsement toxic enough, and some GOP pols will run the other way when he comes calling. If no one wants to be associated with MAGA, the primary threat is eliminated.
We are not there yet, and there is no world in which I feel that we can count on anyone in today’s Republican party to consider doing the right thing, but the path is there if one tries. And we, as the people of this country, can continue to put pressure on our officials, regardless of party. We must do all we can to continue to drive Trump’s favorability ratings downward. We can’t afford to wait for the 2026 midterms, so we need to make any alliance with Trump toxic as hell.
Next time you hear about a rally, protest, or demonstration, do what you can to attend. Bring a friend. Bring five friends. It can be a lot of fun, and it’s very refreshing to see so many like-minded people. This is especially important if you live in a red state or town. Find the folks who think like you do, then give and get strength from them. Find folks who may have voted for this, and see if they are getting what they signed up for. If not, see if you can bring them to the light.5 If we can continue to make our voices heard, we can start to turn the narrative. Who knows, maybe somewhere in the Democratic Party is our very own Mark Carney, someone who is ready and able to stand up to the bully.
Almost every day I wake up and sigh, realizing that we are only 100 days in. Maybe I need to be more optimistic and realize just how much they have fucked up in those 100 days. T2.0 is doing a fine job of stepping on their collective (tiny mushroom) dicks. I am not suggesting we follow the “play dead” strategy espoused by ancient Democratic operatives, but we don’t need to stop them when they seem hell-bent on screwing up.
Take Care and Stay Strong, Together
Yeah, about that. Again, apologies to both Mexico and Canada for our crackpot.
Even this was nonsense. Trump’s initial rationale for the tariffs on Canada and Mexico was a “national security emergency” due to the proliferation of fentanyl being smuggled into the USA via our borders with Canada and Mexico. Trudeau publicly acknowledged the (largely nonexistent) issue while pledging to increase border security spending, among other things. The best part was that all of the things that Trudeau pledged had already been agreed to and had begun to be implemented as part of agreements reached with the Biden administration in late 2024.
With the possible exception of such notable bulwarks of democracy as Russia, Belarus, Hungary, and El Salvador.
Sorry Rich, Amin, and other GoGata that may be reading this. :)
I am not talking about the die-hard MAGAs. Don’t waste any time or effort on them, it’s simply not worth the aggravation.